There are at least two features of Georgian politics that are pretty unique for this small country of 3.8 million on the east coast of the Black Sea.

The Curious Case of Georgia

Firstly, unlike most of the countries, it is foreign policy orientation that determines domestic agenda rather the other way round – the result of Georgia’s largely pro-western orientation, with Russia casting a long shadow and trying to win the country back by establishing a foothold through various means.

This feature of Georgian politics has its own reasons and advantages, but there is a downside. It consists in the fact that often political debate reduces to primitive and often baseless mutual accusations of "pro-Russianness", leaving aside numerous burning socio-economic issues.

And the second feature, less unique but remarkable nonetheless, is about election and electoral campaigns. Almost every election cycle in Georgia for nearly 30 years after regaining independence, be it parliamentary or presidential, has been an upheaval of monumental proportions, with things starting to heat up considerably earlier than is the case in established democracies or predictable post-Soviet autocracies.

“Gavrilov’s Night” and Other Nights

But this year, with parliamentary election scheduled for October, seems to be breaking all records in that the entirety of political spectrum got sucked into the maelstrom of political confrontation that acquired the fever pitch right off the bat.

As soon as the situation in the country began to cool down after two rounds of scandalous and shrill presidential elections of late 2018, the usual course of the country's political life was abruptly interrupted on June 20. On that day, mass protests erupted in reaction to the Russian lawmaker Sergey Gavrilov that occupied the seat of Georgia’s parliamentary chairman (on the invitation of the latter) to preside over the Inter-parliamentary Assembly on Orthodoxy. Many Georgians took the sight of the Communist lawmaker “presiding” in the Parliament as an insult and took to the street in their thousands. After some demonstrators, incited by the opposition MP Nika Melia from the United National Movement (UNM - party founded by the former president Saakashvili), tried to storm into the building, the riot police used force, excessively and inefficiently, firing rubber bullets. The confrontation left about 300 detained and 240 injured, including policemen. The clumsy handling of the rally ensured continuation of the mass protests on subsequent nights. Only after the ruling Georgian Dream party chairman and the de-facto leader of the country billionaire Bidzina Ivanishvili made the important concession by agreeing to hold the next parliamentary election on a fully proportional basis did the protests subside. Previously, the transition to the proportional system from the current mixed one had been planned to take place only in 2024.

It is widely believed that for transitional democracies like Georgia, proportional system is fairer as the current one gives outsized advantage to the incumbent. For instance, in the 2016 polls the ruling party gained a constitutional majority of 78% with only 48% of the popular vote. This is the reason the Georgian Dream leaders are so reluctant to abandon it, just as were their predecessors.

But in mid-November, the Parliament rejected the promised electoral changes – most probably at the behest of Ivanishvili himself – and the protest rallies resumed. At some point, even very distant political forces united in their indignation over the broken promise. The mass rallies quickly lost steam in late fall temperatures, but the standoff and heated debates (officially, rounds of negotiations mediated by representatives of diplomatic corps) between the ruling Georgian Dream party a number of opposition parties and movements, and thus a political deadlock continue to this day.

The Sources of Georgia’s Political Stalemate

One natural question that may arise in the current standoff is "Cui Bono?", or who benefits from the constantly elevated political temperature. One simple answer would be former party of power, United National Movement, together with the parties that broke away from it over the past few years. They have their disagreements with the UNM, but are in full agreement on implacable hostility toward Ivanishvili's informal rule. Of those parties, one would single out “European Georgia”, which broke away from the UNM following the 2016 parliamentary election and now is the second largest faction of the legislative body with 19 MPs. For more than two years, the party was positioning itself as a more civilized and less demagogical version of the UNM, in particular emphasizing the fact of its distancing from Mikheil Saakashvili. But, realizing that this is an electorally disadvantageous strategy, whereby with a larger representation in the parliament than the UNM, they have fewer supporters in society, the party transformed itself into loudmouths, making the mantra "there is the pro-Russian government in Georgia" their main narrative. The arrival of Gavrilov turned out to be a good occasion for the carrying out this transformation.

Following a long string of painful blowout electoral losses since 2012, they understand full well that their chances to return to power through calm and civilized electoral process are virtually non-existent. Despite implementing a number of daring reforms to strengthening state institutions, the legacy of nine years of Saakashvili and his party's leadership is rather grave, since in their final years in power were mainly engaged in state-run racket of businesses and suppression of dissent. The parties that splintered try to distance themselves from the UNM, but in the eyes of a large part of society they are still associated with the Movement. Therefore, for the UNM and its associates like “European Georgia” to turn the tables, they need to capitalize on the ruling party’s and the executive’s mistakes, to bring up the issue of “Russian collusion”, alluding to Ivanishvili’s background and to keep the situation tense in order to distract the authorities from addressing pressing domestic and international challenges.  

In fairness, the ruling party provides the opposition with ample opportunities to be criticized, given their inept management and a high level of corruption and nepotism. Until recently, the low rating of opposition parties was a lulling factor for the Georgian Dream, whereby electoral victory was almost a certainty. Thus the incumbents had no incentive to deploy genuine efforts in order to improve the situation in the country qualitatively. The above defects of the governance were the consequence of this state of affairs. What is still worse, inefficient governance renders Georgia too dependent on Russia economically, mainly through exports and tourism. Russian disinformation campaign also seems to be on the rise. At the same time, in an attempt to denigrate the Georgian Dream leadership by presenting the latter as essentially pro-Russian, the opposition tends to exaggerate the extent of Moscow’s influence.

Is There a Silver Lining?

This fragile balance, whereby the principal political “poles” in Georgia literally are feeding off each other’s deficiencies, even if it is maintained, does not bode well for Georgia. Many experts and Georgian citizens, tired and disenchanted with the current status-quo, speak of the need for a "third", or a "new force." Whether this third force will arise in Georgia and who it will be is an open question so far. One potential candidate for such a role is a libertarian and cosmopolitan party by the name “Girchi” (meaning “pine cone”), founded by former UNM lawmaker Zurab Japaridze. The party is focused toward youth participation, economic deregulation and drug legalization; popular among the young for its rabidly secular, pro-choice, freedom-oriented and non-mainstream nature, it is however questionable how much traction it will gain in wider and largely socially conservative populace. Another political movement that has a potential to split the bipolar structure of Georgia’s politics is “Lelo for Georgia”, founded last December by a successful banker Mamuka Khazaradze. It is telling that the idea to go into politics came to Khazaradze and his business partners after the prosecutor’s office launched an investigation against them earlier in 2019. Since its consolidation into a political party, “Lelo” strengthened its ranks with several political heavyweights such as former parliamentary chairman David Usupashvili as well as young energetic center-left politicians as Grigol Gegelia. This centrist party that advocates for the rule of law and improvement of investment climate can be considered a well-equipped now, but how wisely it will conduct an election campaign is not yet clear.

All in all, with seven months till the parliamentary election, there battle for the hearts and minds of the Georgian people is far from over, with many surprises and sharp turns down the road.   

George Mchedlishvili

Professor, expert on regional politics and security in the South Caucasus

09 March 2020 / 12:13