Oil prices set to climb on rumors that the Fed will stop hiking interest rates
Traders expect the Fed to end its rate-hike policy as soon as March, as economic indicators suggest inflation is slowing down. Oil prices climbed last week on the positive economic data coming out of the United States, but this week, weaker increase in oil prices is expected.
However, experts think that a rebound in oil demand in China and growing geopolitical risks in the Middle East could lend additional upward potential to oil prices, Oil Price writes.
Decline in interest rates
Traders expect the Federal Reserve to end its rate hikes in two months, which could push oil prices higher due to the generally inverse relationship between rates and oil prices. According to a Reuters report, the Fed might end its rate-hike policy as soon as March, as economic indicators suggest inflation is slowing down and getting under control. What’s more, the Fed is set to announce another hike in benchmark rates this week but it may be lower than previous ones, at 25 basis points.
What affects oil prices
Oil prices climbed last week on the positive economic data coming out of the United States, although Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen has warned that there was still a danger of recession. Coupled with expectations for a rebound in oil demand in China, a lower rate hike and any other indication that the Fed may be preparing for a wind-down of its aggressive inflation control measures could lend additional upward potential to oil prices. There has also been added support for prices from the reported drone attacks on targets in Iran, suggesting a possible escalation in Middle Eastern tensions. The reports pushed oil prices higher in morning trade in Asia today, although prices have since fallen back. Some stability could come from the OPEC+ meeting this week as there are no expectations of any tweaks to the current policy of the extended cartel, with many members still unable to fulfill their production quotas even with their reduction last year.
News from China
China remains the biggest bullish factor for oil prices, however, especially after the government in Beijing said over the weekend it would aim to stimulate consumption as a means of boosting economic growth after the lockdowns. Uncertainty remains, however. “We have Russia on the supply side and China on the demand side. Both can swing by more than 1 million barrels per day above or below expectation,” one investment manager told CNBC. “China seems to have surprised the market in terms of how fast they are coming out of zero Covid while Russia has surprised in terms of resilience of export volume despite the sanctions,” Stefano Grasso said.
As Vestnik Kavkaza previously reported, some analysts expect the oil market to swing into a deficit yet again, adding more upside risk for prices. Last year saw some quite significant swings in oil prices, mostly driven by geopolitical events. This year appears to signal calmer waters for the world’s most traded commodities.


Israel expanding combat operation in Gaza
05 December 2023 / 12:25
‘3+3’ regional platform is becoming more prospective, Russia FM says
05 December 2023 / 12:07
Deputy FM: Azerbaijan not yet responded to Armenia proposals on 6th version of peace treaty
04 December 2023 / 12:57
Baku: Azerbaijan ready for peace with Armenia
04 December 2023 / 11:23
Former US Secretary of State Henry Kissinger dies aged 100
30 November 2023 / 10:42
Armenia, Azerbaijan deputy PMs’ talk kicks off at border
30 November 2023 / 10:30
Baku and Yerevan to discuss border delimitation
29 November 2023 / 13:54
'No Planned Interactions With Russia': U.S. Envoy Rules Out Direct Blinken-Lavrov Encounter At OSCE Summit
29 November 2023 / 11:55
Some Armenia trucks sent back from Upper Lars checkpoint on Georgia-Russia border
29 November 2023 / 11:40
Armenia between Russia and the West
29 November 2023 / 11:12
Georgia prepares celebrating EU candidate status
28 November 2023 / 11:04
Turkish defense minister says there is 'historic opportunity' for peace in the region
28 November 2023 / 10:40
SPECA Summit Marks 25 Years of Regional Economic Collaboration in Baku
24 November 2023 / 14:49
Russia presidential spox: CSTO countries’ leaders will think about how to deal with Armenian factor
24 November 2023 / 14:42
Russia comments on Armenia’s refusal to participate in CSTO summit
23 November 2023 / 13:29