Armenia is a former Soviet Union republic located in the South Caucasus region and classified as a "Small Power" (state) in terms of the capacity and possibilities of international actors. The states included in this group are generally small populated countries with a small territory, at the same time they lack enough natural resources and are not capable of providing their own security. Thus, Armenia is one of the most suitable for the concept of "Small Power". Therefore, Armenian foreign policy has a limited range of action and is usually shaped by the will of the key actors in the region.

Armenia, which is a land locked country and poor in terms of natural resources, needs ensuring country security in every sense. For these reasons, the main priorities of Armenian foreign policy are providing national security, developing the country's economy and increasing the welfare of the citizens. All these tasks are only possible in collaboration with the other actors.

Due to the geographical location Armenia interacts with Europe, Russia and the Middle East in various dimensions. Regarding the national interests of Armenia, the country wants to improve its relations with the European Union (EU) in order to reduce the interaction with Russia and the Middle East, and to be closer to the West. Being aware of the importance of strong integration with Western institutions for the future of the country, Armenia, which has the capacity of being a EU member because it is located in the Europe (according to EU Treaties every European state potentially can be a member of this organization), is also highly desirable for the country's society to adopt western values. However, these western targets of Armenia are severely restricted in line with the policies of Russia, the main actor in the region. Armenia is seriously dependent on Russia both politically and economically and sees the EU as the only option it can balance Russia. In addition, the economic support provided by the EU to Armenia is of great importance for Armenia, as it is a serious contribution to the country's economy.

As Armenia has a limited power as a Small Power, it is unable for her to shape its foreign policy as its own wish. Therefore, Armenia cannot play an active role in defining direction in the relations with the EU; it merely tries to make use of the opportunities that offered. Therefore, the entire framework and depth of the relations between the two sides are determined unilaterally by the EU. In fact, this situation is not only an Armenian-specific approach, but it is valid for all former Soviet republics that are in contact with the EU. So, it is good to evaluate the EU-Armenia relations within the framework of EU relations with Newly Independent States (NIS, former Soviet Union republics).

The EU goals has set for NIS are in line with the expectations of this organisation. When we compare it with relations with other Eastern Bloc states, it is much more limited. Regarding the issue, it would be worth mentioning that the EU does not foresee full membership for these states and pursues these relations in the form of limited economic integration. Therefore, the highest level of relations is the "Eastern Partnership" (EP) program.

Among the EP program partners there are three NIS states that want to join the EU and designate this as a principal aim of their foreign policy. These are Ukraine, Georgia and Moldova. These countries have fulfilled their obligations to achieve the opportunities offered within the framework of the EP program and have reached the highest level of possible relations with the EU. For this reason, they hope that the EU will initiate a new process, and they actually see the EP program as a necessary step towards the EU membership. But the EU is not planned to create any enlarged and deepened new initiative at least in the medium term. These states understood the real expectations of the EU only after fulfilling all obligations under the EP program. Still they do not see this situation as a loss, and think that everything may change in the future. Therefore, all obligations fulfilled in the past period will become a gain.

As for Armenia, although it wants to reach the highest level which is possible to reach in its relations with the EU, Armenia's own foreign policy options and opportunities and the geopolitical location does not allow to achieve this goal. In addition, in the structural and cyclical realities, it pushes the relations between the parties to a more limited channel. Therefore, the level of Armenia's relations with the EU is narrower and more limited than the opportunities provided by the EU.

There are some basic geopolitical reasons that determine the level of how much Armenia's relations with the EU can improve. Undoubtedly, the most important of these reasons is Russia's attitude. Russia considers the geography of the former Soviet Union as its own area of national interest, and is seriously troubled by the possibility of the West's possible intervention. As a matter of fact, Russia opposes NIS's establishment of relations with NATO and the EU, trying to prevent these relations. However, Russia could not completely prevent the aspiration of Ukraine, Georgia and Moldova and their activities. Therefore, during this process these three countries have seriously disrupted their relations with Russia and faced problems that cannot be repaired. As a result, they paid huge prices for their idealistic dreams.

Apart from these states, the second geopolitical barrier for Armenia to develop its relations with the EU is the problem of Nagorno Karabakh with Azerbaijan. Armenia because of occupation of 20% of the Azerbaijani territory has faced sanctions by Azerbaijan and Turkey. Both states have closed their borders with Armenia and impose an economic embargo against this country. This Azerbaijan and Turkey's attitude main reason is to restrict Armenia's relations with the outside world and to izolate from regional projects. Sanctions against Armenia are getting easier because Azerbaijan is the pioneer of all regional energy and transportation projects in the South Caucasus and it is difficult to realize any regional project without the participation of Azerbaijan. Due to this situation, Armenia is isolated not only from regional projects offered by Azerbaijan, but also from all international projects carried out in the region. In other words, Armenia has not been able to benefit from the regional projects offered by the EU at full capacity and as desired.

Since the EP program was adopted, the EU and Armenia had been working intensively for three years, in order to form and shape the text of the Assossiation Agreement (AA) within this program. Indeed, the the EU Commissioner of Enlargement and European Neighborhood Policy, Štefan Fule, stated that the AA for Armenia will be completed and signed by November 2013 on the EP Summit in Vilnius. But, Armenia has ceased to progress in its dream adventure with the EU to the end after the first serious warning of Russia. During the sudden trip the to Moscow in October 2013 and after the meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin, President of Armenia Serj Sarkisyan announced about integration to the Eurasian Economic Union, which was formed under the patrontage of Russia. The EU reacted to this statement of Armenia with astonishment and declared that if this state become a member of the Eurasian Economic Union, it is impossible to participate in any economic integration process with the EU. So, negotiations have stopped. Later, in November, the President of Armenia declared that Armenia is ready to sign AA except for the articles intended to form the Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Zone. Of course, such development was considered impossible and rejected by the EU.

It is quite possible to understand the reason for this sudden abandonment of Armenia. Because the Armenian administration was always prepared for this kind of scenario, hoping that Russia would not give a serious reaction until the last moment, aimed to reach the highest level they could reach in EU relations. But this was not possible. So, Armenia has taken all steps in line with Russia's expectations and following a realistic policy, avoiding the possible confrontation with Russia. Although the steps taken by the Armenian government were realistic, this created a serious disappointment in the vast majority of the society. As a matter of fact, it became of the reasons that prepared the end of Sargsyan administration as a result of the revolution in Armenia held few years later.

As a result of fact the final destination of the EU - Armenia relations became Comprehensive and Enhanced Partnership Agreement signed on November 24, 2017. The new Treaty contained a narrower frame than AA. Agreement excluded any possible economic integration between the sides and limited with political dialogue and economic assistance. Armenia had lost the opportunity to benefit from even the narrow opportunities offered by the EU and Armenia had compelled it only with such an agreement.

Prof. Dr. Rovshan Ibrahimov, Hankuk University of Foreign Studies

Seoul, South Korea 

18 February 2020 / 13:26