If the missiles were launched from a Russian base, it would be an act of war - Paul Goble

In the last 24 hours, allegations that the attack on the city of Shusha with “Iskander” missiles was inflicted by the Russian and not the Armenian military is becoming clearer and clearer. Moscow does not give a clear answer to these assumptions, and Baku has not yet made obvious demarches.

Turan agency appealed to the well-known American political scientist Paul Goble with a request to comment on the possible consequences of this situation.

-According to some assumptions, the fragments of the missiles found in the city of Shusha are not the ones that Russia supplied to Armenia. There is an opinion that these are missiles from the Russian military base in Gyumri. Is it possible to determine what kind of missiles they are? Answering this question, Goble said, “This is a technical issue that depends on whether there are enough surviving parts of the missiles to identify them. Also on whether these missiles have gone through multiple hands, which is also possible, and which allows for "plausible denials" even if you have to be held accountable. "

-If it is confirmed that the missiles were launched by the Russians, how can this affect the situation in the region and will Russia be able to maintain its image of an impartial broker?

Golb answered this question as follows: “If Moscow ordered the launch of these missiles from its base in Armenia against Azerbaijan, it would be an act of war. In this case, Baku must decide how to react. This would undoubtedly undermine relations between Moscow and Baku, making Azerbaijan more suspicious of Russia's intentions and more ready to act against Armenia."

-Can we assume that the new US administration will be more active in the process of political settlement of the conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia?

Goble gave a definite answer to this. “The Biden administration will certainly be more proactive than the Trump administration, taking into account that the US wants to contain Russia rather than support its actions. At the same time, the pandemic has presented the United States with a huge set of internal problems, and they will take priority, at least in the coming months."